Saint Francis vs. Sacred Heart prediction: College basketball pick

The mid-major basketball gods occasionally bless us with a mid-week morning or early afternoon tilt to bet on during an otherwise lackluster workweek. 

This week, we get the Saint Francis Red Flash battling Sacred Heart Pioneers on Thursday morning at 11 a.m. ET on NEC Front Row – here’s the link for where to stream the ballgame (free of charge). 

This game marks the start of what should be an exciting Northeast Conference season. 

Sacred Heart was the preseason favorite, although it’s looking like Merrimack or Central Connecticut is the better bet.

Meanwhile, Saint Francis was picked to finish last in the nation’s worst conference.

However, the Flash have slightly outplayed their preseason expectations, picking up three wins over D-I competition, a few more than Stonehill and Long Island. 

Sure, it’s not Thursday’s most riveting ballgame, but it’s the one that tips off before noon. 

Here’s how I’m betting on it. 

Saint Francis vs Sacred Heart Odds

Saint Francis vs Sacred Heart Prediction

The Red Flash are among the nation’s least-experienced squads. All 12 scholarship players are underclassmen, seven sophomores and five freshmen. 

They’ve leaned into backcourt play, relying primarily on guards Cam Gregory, Carlos Lopez and Aaron Talbert – the three account for 31.1 of the team’s 66.2 points per game. 

They run a good amount of pick-and-roll, with Talbert and Gregory playing well in those sets. 

Unfortunately for the Flash, Sacred Heart’s ball-screen defense held up in non-conference play, with Pioneers allowing only 0.64 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, ranking in the 86th percentile.

Guard Joey Reilly has defended those sets exceptionally well.

Dissimilarly, the Pioneers are a frontcourt-heavy attack led by Nico Galette and Alex Sobel (and, usually, Tanner Thomas, who is unfortunately injured). 

Galette is the go-to guy primarily because of his versatility.

He’s a true three-level scorer whose bucket-getting prowess could result in an NEC POY award, and I especially love his mid-range shooting ability – I hesitate to call him a low-major Kobe Bryant, but it’s not crazy far off. 

Meanwhile, Sobel is a more paint-oriented scorer, dropping in nine paint points per game with high efficiency (60% true-shooting). 

I wouldn’t say I like Saint Francis’ chances against the duo.

The Red Flash are a backcourt-oriented squad because they have an entirely inexperienced, ineffective, freshman-only frontcourt led by Aidan Harris and Eli Wilborn. 

Behind the duo, the Flash rank 301st nationally in 2-point defense, 331st in post-up PPP allowed and 344th in defensive rebounding rate. 

Ultimately, I like the matchup for the Pioneers.

Sacred Heart’s backcourt defense can hold against Saint Francis’ backcourt offense, but SFPA’s frontcourt defense can’t do the same against SHU’s frontcourt offense. 

Last year, the Flash knocked off the Pioneers in overtime in early February, 78-76. But that was when SFPA still had All-NEC center Josh Cohen, who poured in 27 points while recording nine rebounds, two blocks and two steals.

Cohen now plays for UMass, and the Flash don’t have an adequate frontcourt replacement. That should haunt Saint Francis this year, especially in this matchup.

The aggressiveness of these two defenses is also worth mentioning. 

Both squads force turnovers at a top-100 rate, and Sacred Heart loves using press against up-tempo, transition-heavy offenses. 

Sacred Heart can handle the pressure. The Pioneers run the floor, score 1.25 PPP in transition against press offense (83rd percentile), and rank top-200 nationally in turnover rate. 

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Meanwhile, the Flash rank 351st in turnover rate, not handling pressure by throwing away the ball 22% of the time.

Finally, while the Flash are inexperienced, the Pioneers are experienced, with four seniors and a junior in the starting five.

They also rank in the top 40 nationally in minutes continuity, so roles are well-defined, and the team knows how to play together. 

So, I like Sacred Heart to begin a hopefully NEC championship season with a big home win in an excellent matchup.

And I think the line is short. 

Bart Torvik projects the Pioneers as 11-point home favorites over the Flash, while the ShotQualityBets model projects them as whopping 20-point favorites. 

So, I’m happy laying anything under 10 with Sacred Heart on Thursday morning in Fairfield. 

Saint Francis vs Sacred Heart Pick

Sacred Heart -7.5 (-120) | Play to -9.5 (-110)

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